09/09/2008 – 0700CDTIKE sliding westward just off of the south shore of Cuba. Texas clients need to remain vigilant as we have raised all Texas locations HURCON level to LEVEL 1 (chance of tropical storm winds in 120 hours).
Ike has managed to stay far enough offshore in the last 24 hours so that it’s structure and intensity has maintained itself well. It is currently moving WNW and will pass over western Cuba in the same location as Gustav did just a few weeks ago. Top winds are 80 mph and may strengthen a bit before hitting the south coast of Cuba. The central pressure is 965 mb.
Ike will weaken a bit over Cuba any will likely drop to barely a hurricane or a strong tropical storm. It should re-strengthen rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico and we expect it will be a major hurricane within 24 hours of reaching the gulf. NHC’s intensity forecast is not as aggressive.Since IKE has defied history so far in its unusual path, we see no reason why it should not continue to do so. The image below shows the official forecast which has continue to move southward… now indicating a landfall in S. Texas, as well as the forecast models. The purple and black model tracks that show a track to the NE Gulf of Mexico are climate models which show where most storms in this position normally move. We still would be surprised if Ike does not end up a little further north than what is currently forecast. The European model shows a late northward movement similar to the HWRF (red) track which we like more than a straight shot into Texas. As far as we are concerned the entire coast of Texas is threatened by Ike.
With this new forecast through the central and southern Gulf, where the water temps are much warmer than the northern Gulf, Ike has the potential to reach Cat 4 strength. The image below shows where some of the warmest SST’s in the Atlantic basin are located. NHC is not forecasting a Cat 4 hurricane.
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