1, September J, 2008 by admin.

Hi 

Here is the latest on Ike as of 1000 this morning… I hope this is of some help.   I also just got off the conference call with the NWS and the State of Texas… You need to be prepared for a very serious threat to our State.

IKE now in the SE Gulf of Mexico.. reorganizing

Ike, which was once a small storm, is now reorganizing and growing in size in the SE Gulf..  Top winds are now up to 90 MPH with a central pressure of 957 mb, down 13 mb since yesterday.  The storm is generally moving WNW however it appear to be moving more to the north in the last few hours as it reorganizes.  The official forecast is for the storm to move WNW and then a bit more westward as the high pressure system to the north builds westward.  This is not a powerful high pressure ridge and it exact strength and westward extent will determine the final landfall point of Ike. 

Looking at the model plots…  They are in better agreement than late yesterday when the HWRF and European suggested a turn to the north before landfall.  This is still possible and that is why the entire coastline of Texas is being threatened.  The climate models seem to want to track more to the northern Gulf.

Regarding intensity, as we mentioned yesterday, the forecast takes Ike over very warm waters.  That is why we still think Ike can make Cat 4 status and residents of that state should prepare accordingly.

Elsewhere in the tropics, The remains of Josephine are starting to appear again NE of the Leeward Islands.

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1, September J, 2008 by admin.

09/09/2008 – 0700CDTIKE sliding westward just off of the south shore of Cuba.  Texas clients need to remain vigilant as we have raised all Texas locations HURCON level to LEVEL 1 (chance of tropical storm winds in 120 hours).

Ike has managed to stay far enough offshore in the last 24 hours so that it’s structure and intensity has maintained itself well.  It is currently moving WNW and will pass over western Cuba in the same location as Gustav did just a few weeks ago.  Top winds are 80 mph and may strengthen a bit before hitting the south coast of Cuba.  The central pressure is 965 mb.

Ike will weaken a bit over Cuba any will likely drop to barely a hurricane or a strong tropical storm.  It should re-strengthen rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico and we expect it will be a major hurricane within 24 hours of reaching the gulf.  NHC’s intensity forecast is not as aggressive.Since IKE has defied history so far in its unusual path, we see no reason why it should not continue to do so.  The image below shows the official forecast which has continue to move southward… now indicating a landfall in S. Texas, as well as the forecast models.  The purple and black model tracks that show a track to the NE Gulf of Mexico are climate models which show where most storms in this position normally move.  We still would be surprised if Ike does not end up a little further north than what is currently forecast.  The European model shows  a late northward movement similar to the HWRF (red) track which we like more than a straight shot into Texas.   As far as we are concerned the entire coast of Texas is threatened by Ike.

With this new forecast through the central and southern Gulf, where the water temps are much warmer than the northern Gulf, Ike has the potential to reach Cat 4 strength.  The image below shows where some of the warmest SST’s in the Atlantic basin are located. NHC is not forecasting a Cat 4 hurricane.

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1, September J, 2008 by admin.

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